Comparing the Stats: Lucic vs. Neal
July 19, 2019 shall henceforth be remembered as the day that God descended from the sky and cured the world of all its plague and negativity; or at least, in the short-term, that’s how the day will be remembered in Edmonton. A Lucic contract had seemed almost as impossible to move as the aforementioned situation. Ken Holland made a hell of a first impression on Edmonton fans, that’s for sure. Milan Lucic had a gun pointed at his forehead by nearly all Edmonton supporters for his recent gameplay (or lack thereof). Fans of Edmonton’s hockey team would have been happy to have moved Lucic out of town for a bag of pucks; But instead they got James Neal in return. Hell of a return. Right…? Neal, who’s scored over 20 goals in every season he’s played aside from 10/11 where he only played 20 games, and his most recent season: 18/19. Edmonton fans have come to learn how washed-up Lucic and his gameplay is, but is Neal in the same boat or can last season be labeled as a simple outlier?
Holistically, Lucic has 501 points in 890 games played and Neal has 514 points in 766 games played. While Neal’s stats are slightly better, it only works out to approximately 0.1 more points per game. So, while their lifetime stats are comparable, what about recent years? We know how much hockey fans love recency-bias. Let’s look at the last 3 years for both players. While Lucic’s last 3 years have been a steady (and nearly mathematically consistent) decline: From 0.6 points per game in 16/17, 0.41 ppg in 17/18 all the way down to 0.25 ppg in 18/19. Neal’s were 0.585 ppg in 16/17, 0.62 ppg in 17/18, and 0.30 ppg in 18/19. It should be noted that James Neal actually improved in 17/18 compared with 16/17. For this reason, it could be argued that Neal’s most recent year, 18/19, was an anomaly. Perhaps only time will tell but the fact that he only played 63 games could have had an effect on it. The reason for missing these games was due to 2 separate lower body injuries a month apart from one another. This too could have affected Neal’s gameplay. In contrast, Lucic suffered zero injuries across the 3 years and missed only 3 games in 18/19; while playing full seasons both 16/17 and 17/18.
While James Neal has legitimate excuses for his declining gameplay – being both injuries and changing teams in each of the last 3 years. Lucic has remained with Edmonton the last 3 years and should have had time to settle in accordingly. The only excuse Lucic could ever dream of making would be his age, which is more of a reality than an excuse. He is simply not the player that he used to be: he’s no longer a goal scorer or an enforcer. Lucic recently took a hit at Edmonton, and specifically Mcdavid, when comparing the teams “Your captain and your leader is in his thirties” he said while talking about his new team, Calgary. Mcdavid was far from the issue and makes every single player around him better. He made Patrick Maroon look like an elite goal scorer when he scored 27 goals in 16/17 while playing with Mcdavid. Compare this with the 10 goals he put up with St. Louis in 18/19. A better team perhaps, but a team without Connor Mcdavid. Calgary have been open about the fact that they traded down for Lucic – so he can act as an enforcer and protect the young guys. However, Edmonton fans will say that they saw Mcdavid get roughed up numerous times as Lucic stood idly by. Calgary fans will soon come to realize how badly they lost this trade.
Isaac Lamoureux
Edmonton Journalist